The Deadliest Mistake in the Real Estate Market is Spotting a Trend and Staying Inactive. Exactly this kind of transformation unfolded in the first half of 2026—yet most missed it.

The "Real Estate Market at a Glance: 2026 First Half" report, published by TSKB Real Estate Appraisal, revealed a striking truth: While 699,516 properties changed hands, two critical shifts were masked within these figures. Mortgaged sales surged by 32%, and first-hand housing reached a four-year peak.

This is not mere statistics. It signifies the diversification of financing channels, savings financing companies rapidly stepping into intermediary roles, and the easing of traditional bank credit tight spots. In other words, the market is being re-engineered.

For premium investors, risk managers, and real estate professionals, the question is crystal clear: Who will turn this shift into a strategic advantage?

Mortgaged Sales Surged 32%: The Meaning of the Financing Revolution 

Why the Increase Despite Tight Financing?

In the first half of 2026, mortgaged sales reached 142,794 units compared to the same period last year. This translates to a 32% increase.

One of the most intriguing structural phenomena the market witnessed at this juncture is the central bank's authorization of savings financing companies (SFCs). These institutions have emerged as an alternative channel to traditional bank credit.

The Numbers Are Clear:

• Total residential properties sold: 699,516 units

• Mortgaged sales: 142,794 units

• Share of mortgaged sales: Rose from 15% to 20%

What It Means for Investors

This diversification carries three vital messages:

1. Financing Tightness Is Not Permanent: Although bank loans remain strict, alternative channels are opening up. This means purchasing power has not entirely vanished—it has simply shifted into different formats.

2. Savings Financing Companies as New Players: SFCs are currently the high-production-power alternative to bank credit. While components may vary, the ultimate effect remains the same: more people are acquiring homes.

3. Portfolio Diversification Opportunity: For those looking to gain exposure to savings finance products, this channel presents a serious option. The risk-return profile may differ, but the liquidity-conversion potential is high.

First-Hand Housing Reaches Four-Year Peak

Market Positioning is Shifting

221,487 first-hand residential sales were recorded—a level not seen since 2022. However, reading this success accurately is essential.

Crucial Data: The 32% Share Limit

First-hand housing accounts for 32% of total sales. While seemingly high, compared to 48% in 2018, this demonstrates that the market remains heavily secondary-market dominant.

What is Driving This Demand?

1. Urban Transformation Projects: New construction is concentrating in city centers. Safety, guaranteed quality, and modern living standards make first-hand housing attractive.

2. Post-Earthquake Structural Sensitivity: Earthquake awareness levels surged post-2023. Newer buildings are preferred over older structures. If this trend was overlooked, market opportunities were missed.

3. Real Estate Portfolio Diversification: Professional investors favor first-hand projects over secondary ones for several reasons:

   • Guaranteed quality

   • Developer warranties

   • Official records

   • More predictable long-term appraisal value

Strategic Question

The share of first-hand sales is rising, but its weight within the total remains limited. This means the secondary market continues to serve as the main current, yet growth in the new-build segment is rapid. Portfolio diversifiers must begin establishing a balance between secondary and first-hand assets.

Real Prices Stabilize: How Open is the Window of Opportunity?

Inflation-Adjusted Data Reveals the Reality

According to the TSKB report, the real housing price index (inflation-adjusted) showed positive growth in only one out of 29 months: November 2025.

Practical Meaning: Nominal prices may rise, but housing prices are dropping in terms of real purchasing power.

Reading for Investors

This situation points in two directions:

• Window of Opportunity Is Open (For Now):

  • Real prices are undergoing a correction.

  • Nominal price growth is close to inflation.

  • Real estate appears relatively more attractive compared to alternative investment instruments.

• Caution: Trending Toward Closing:

  • The speed of the negative trajectory has begun to slow.

  • This signals that the window of opportunity is about to close.

  • Strategic decisions should not be made hastily, but they must not be delayed.

Amortization Period: 16 Years

The period for housing to amortize itself through rental income remains flat at around 16 years. For income-focused investors: yield expectations will remain moderate. However, because price appreciation expectations are low, care must be taken in net-yield calculations.

Supply-Side Strengthening, Cost Pressures

Building Permits Strengthen

In the first quarter of 2026, the number of building permits issued increased significantly compared to the previous period:

• 2025: 1,187,924 apartments

• 2026 Q1: Rose from 169,580 to 232,252

This demonstrates that a new supply threshold is preparing to arrive.

Severe Rise in Construction Costs

However, a critical warning stands here: The construction cost index increased by 29.8%.

Detail Matters:

• Labor costs: 32.6% increase

• Producer inflation: 28.9%

This means construction costs are rising faster than producer inflation. The consequence: Margins are compressing.

Risk for Investors

As new supply rises while construction costs simultaneously climb:

• Developer margins shrink $\rightarrow$ Risk of quality loss in projects.

• Completion times lengthen $\rightarrow$ Financing costs increase.

• Entry prices rise $\rightarrow$ Risk of demand contraction.

Strategy: When examining new projects, developer financing structures and cost control mechanisms must be evaluated attentively.

Foreign Capital Withdrawal: The Triumph of Local Dynamics

The Data is Clear

Housing sales to foreigners have dropped to the lowest levels of recent years:

• 2026 H1: 1.3% of total sales

• Concentration: Primarily concentrated in Istanbul and Antalya

Understanding the Reasons

1. Global Recession Concerns: International investors have lost risk appetite.

2. Lira Volatility: Instability in exchange rates has made external investors hesitant.

3. Shift in Turkey's Risk Perception: Geopolitical uncertainties negatively impacted foreign capital flows.

Opportunity for Investors

The withdrawal of foreign capital means greater market share for local players. Specifically:

• Turkish investors' purchasing power becomes more decisive.

• Regional differentiation may increase.

• The localization trend can strengthen.

Strategic Implications: Actions for Investors

1. Financing Diversity & Portfolio Expansion Opportunity

• Action: Review savings financing company products. Specialize in alternative financing structures. Factor this channel into liquidity management.

• Risk: SFC products are dynamic and regulations can change. However, they represent a serious option right now.

2. Positioning in the First-Hand Housing Segment is Critical

• Action: Examine urban transformation projects. Pay attention to earthquake-resistant structural certifications. In-depth analysis of developer credibility and financial structure.

• Reason: First-hand sales are rising but their share is limited—this can offer selective investors higher return potential.

3. Centering Timing Amid the Price Correction Process

• Action: Take action before the real price correction is complete. Conduct data-driven analysis rather than "chasing trends." Monitor macroeconomic indicators regularly.

• Reason: The window of opportunity is still open but tending to close—those who move strategically, rather than reactive decision-makers, will win.

4. Converting Foreign Capital Withdrawal into a Domestic Positioning Advantage

• Action: Better understand local dynamics. Utilize the regional differentiation trend. Pay attention to markets outside Istanbul and Antalya.

• Reason: As global players withdraw, investors with local intelligence gain the advantage.

5. Increasing the Weight of Developer Quality in Pricing Models

• Action: Review project margins. Analyze developer history. Evaluate cost-control mechanisms.

• Reason: Rising construction costs will negatively impact projects with weak management. Projects with quality governance will come to the forefront.

Success in this market transformation period relies not on seeing data, but on converting that data into strategic action.

Where do you stand?

The analyses presented in this article are informative contents based on technical data from the "Real Estate Market at a Glance: 2026 First Half" report published by TSKB Real Estate Appraisal. This text under no circumstances constitutes investment advice, an investment recommendation, or financial consultancy.

Sources

• TSKB Real Estate Appraisal Inc., "Real Estate Market at a Glance: 2026 First Half" (July 2026)

• Makbule Yönel Maya, TSKB Real Estate Appraisal General Manager (Statements)

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